Us Election Odds Australia
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Australians are expected to bet more on the US election than our own NRL and AFL grand finals. So why is betting on politics becoming so popular?
As the world awaits the US election result, an unprecedented number of Australians are emptying their pockets and placing bets on which candidate will secure the presidency.
While betting on the 2016 US election was “popular”, the demand this time around “has been absolutely enormous,” a spokesperson at Ladbrokes told Dateline.
“We have seen an unprecedented level of interest and that includes a number of very big bets,” they said.
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“At this stage, it looks as though we will have more money wagered on the US Election than we did on both the AFL Grand Final and the NRL Grand Final,” they said.
Earlier this month, Sportsbet’s creative director, Rambo Goraya told Mumbrella the company expects the “election to be up there with the Melbourne Cup as our biggest event of 2020.”
Ladbrokes disagrees but claims Australians are gambling more money on the US election than the upcoming Queensland election.
“We held plenty of money on the last federal election, including a $1 million bet on Labor, but the US Election has still been more popular,” they added.
Along with Ladbrokes, Sportsbet and TAB have been widely advertising their services ahead of the November 3 election.
Sportsbet has been running nightly commercials showing a bright orange cartoon version of the president introducing the ‘Trump Hub’, a place where punters can bet on the president’s activities ahead of election day.
Listed items include whether the president’s face will be added to Mt Rushmore, if Putin will join Trump at a rally or if he’ll replace Ellen DeGeneres as a talk show host.
All three major companies have placed former Vice President Joe Biden as the favourite to win the election.
Along with polls, Ladbrokes says “public forecasts provided by outlets like 538” and “the weight of money for a certain candidate” play a part in determining the odds of the candidates.
But what’s behind the rising interest in US politics?
In the US, it’s illegal to bet on elections but in Australia, political bets have traditionally been seen as a “novelty”, says Dr Sally Gainsbury, Director of the Gambling, Treatment and Research Centre at The University of Sydney.
She says with less sporting events occurring and the closure of gambling venues during the pandemic, their popularity has increased.
“With the traditional things that would normally be happening at this time of year in terms of grand finals, and European or North American Summer sports, there's been a real reduction in opportunities to bet,” she told Dateline.
Dr Alex Russell is a Senior Postdoctoral Fellow at the Experimental Gambling Research Laboratory at Central Queensland University.
He says political betting is a great way to tap into the current conversations and “get people talking”.
“They offer bets on just about anything. They do the same with what colour Scomo’s tie will be during the next press conference or about who’s going to be the next Pope because it’s a point of difference,” Dr Russell said.
“If all they were advertising were sports betting, people would get a bit over it.”
Can bets be more accurate than polls?
The accuracy of polls has been brought into question after the last US election when it was universally predicted that Trump would lose.
A spokesperson at Ladbrokes told Dateline he believes betting odds can be more accurate than polls.
“The betting still had Trump as a big outsider in 2020, but not as much as the majority of polls indicated,” he said.
Dr Russell says while we have an idea that “bookies always get it right,”, that’s not always the case.
Us Election Odds Australia 2019
Two days before the last federal election, Sportsbet handed out more than $1 million to bidders who thought Labor would win. The Liberal victory in the election meant the betting company ultimately lost large.
In 2016, the company was also forked to pay out $11 million to 25,000 punters who backed Trump in the US election.
Experts say there are also ethical issues involved with betting on an election when there’s a possibility for punters to influence the outcome or in cases where they have insider knowledge.
“One concern is obviously if there's a lot of election betting and the odds are shifting, that can actually have a legitimate influence on how people cast their vote,” Dr Gainsbury said.
Australia’s gambling addiction
Australia spends more on gambling per capita than any other country in the world and double the average of most western countries, according to Dr Gainsbury.
Dr Gainsbury said the “problem gambling prevalence rate is around one percent but if you include people who are at sub-clinical levels, it's around four or five percent.”
“Australia has a gambling culture. We play Two-Up on Anzac Day and just about every sport match you watch has gambling advertisements all over it,” Dr Russell added.
Australian gamblers are betting more often during COVID-19, according to research released in October by the Australian Institute of Family Studies.
One in three participants of the study signed up for new online betting accounts during COVID-19 as other gambling activities were put on hold.
Lead researcher on the study, Dr Rebecca Jenkinson, said the findings around young men were a concern.
“Increased gambling among young men was often reported to be associated with being socially isolated, bored, or as a means of social connection with friends,” she said.
“On top of this, the easy, 24-hour accessibility of online gambling means young people have been able to bet at any time, any place.”
2020 Us Presidential Election Odds Australia
Dr Gainsbury says gambling stops being entertainment and starts becoming an addiction when people lose control of their spending or there’s an aspect of secrecy around gambling behaviour.
“If you’re concerned about yourself or someone else, you can temporarily block yourself from a gambling website and stop receiving their marketing material, or set a deposit limit,” Dr Gainsbury said.
“If someone is going to be betting on the election and that's all they intend to do, then it's quite useful to delete the app and turn off the marketing,” she added.
“Keep in mind, you should only gamble what you can afford to lose, and that you shouldn't be gambling with the expectation of winning any money.”
The University of Sydney’s Gambling Treatment and Research Clinic has just launched an online self-help tool for gambling problems.
Readers seeking support can contact the Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or Lifeline on 13 11 14.